2020 Election Night Hub
This page contains live results for Pennsylvania. My goal is not to predict the winner of the state. In fact, it’s the opposite. My goal is to understand where the tallied votes are from, where the untallied votes are from, and encourage caution in making assumptions on incomplete data.
[TEST MODE: These results are currently fake.]
There are three categories of ballot: in-person, mail-in that has already been received (“returned”), and mail-in that has not yet been received (“outstanding”). Any ballot postmarked by 11/3 and received by 11/6 will be counted. Live Results may include some counted returned mail-ins.*
In-Person Precincts Reporting: 4,564 / 9,128
Votes Tallied: 1,213,443
Biden: 496,252 (40.9%)
Trump: 557,124 (45.9%)
County-Weighted Change: +0.7% D
Votes in Yet-To-Report Precincts: This number is a naive allocation of votes based proportionally on precincts not reporting and 2016 results. It serves as an order of magnitude. Do not trust it. Just wait til more precincts report.
Returned Mail-Ins: 1,324,378
Registered Dem: 943,678 (71.3%)
Registered Rep: 261,106 (19.7%)
Registered Other: 119,594 (9%)
Outstanding Mail-Ins: 1,527,478
Registered Dem: 870,597 (57%)
Registered Rep: 453,736 (29.7%)
Registered Other: 203,145 (13.3%)
*: It’s impossible in the PA data portal to tell how many of the returned mail-ins are included in the totals. The Live Results contain all of the in-person votes and an unknown fraction of returned mail-ins. In the Scenarios, I assume that zero mail-ins have been counted, to stay conservative about the range of possible eventual results.
Data Sources
Live results from electionreturns.pa.gov. (Updated 2020-10-22 20:00:46)
Mail-in data from data.pa.gov. (Updated 2020-10-22 18:26:09)
Scenarios
Scenarios
Final outcomes under the following assumptions…
- Biden wins if mail-ins vote by party and at least 0% of outstanding mail-ins are eventually returned.
- Biden wins if mail-ins vote like current results adjusted for party[1] and at least 0% of outstanding mail-ins are eventually returned.
[1] - I regress current county-level results on party registration. Then apportion mail-ins using those results. This assumes that in-person voters are representative of registered voters and in-person Democrats vote like mail-in Democrats (and Republicans like Republicans). This may or may not be valid.
Current Results
Change in Pct from 2016
Change in Turnout from 2016
Scatter of Change
